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Prompt: Kiana has been looking into buying into a franchise. This will increase her revenue but will also increase her expenses.

To conduct an appropriate analysis, the first thing Kiana needs is a forecast of demand for next year. She will base her forecast off historical MONTHLY sales data she has gathered data for the last three years. This data will be the basis for her 2021 forecast.

Next, she will need to determine the profitability of the two different options, by creating a yearly profit model for each option (continuing to operate her donut
shop or buy into the franchise).
Finally, she will use decision support tools to analyze her two different options. This will help her decide if she should buy into the franchise or continue with her current donut shop.

Assignment: Using the worksheet template attached create a forecast for average demand , using historic sales data (attached file) create a monthly forecast using classical decomposition that is based on regression and seasonality.

We are creating a monthly forecast not quarterly. The data is your historical salesls , this part of the project is completed on the Excel Worksheet: SI and Regression

Kiana is creating a monthly forecast based on monthly data. You will create a seasonal Index for each month. Therefore you will have seasonal indexes for Jan, Feb, March, etc. Remember the total of the month’s seasonal indexes for a year should add up to 12. You will still use a three-year average for your final seasonal index.

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